Friday’s Trading Levels

Good Morning,

Wow has this week/month flown by! It's hard to believe that today is already the last day of July. But truth be told, it was a great month for equity index futures. ES U10 and TF U10 are up approximately 5% for the month, assuming we don't have a major sell off today.

That being said, earlier this week I mentioned that I felt a modest sell-off in equities was going to start, specifically I said it would start on Tuesday. It did and we're still seeing modest selling pressure this morning. However, I don't think this is the start for a move to test recent lows for either of these markets. Many factors can debunk this claim however all in all, I think this modest sell off is nothing more than profit taking and technical selling.

As I write this, TF U10 and ES U10 are trading slightly above or at their respective S1's - 637.50 and 1086.00. What's interesting is that both are also trading at or slightly above/below their Weekly R1's of 633.11 and 1088.60 respectively. Equity index futures are looking for direction following this morning's fairly disappointing GDP number that came in at 2.4% vs 2.6%.

Using the same counter-trend trading method that we use here at P4P, my bias is to the upside this morning. Buy points at 1088.75 on ES U10 and 641.00 for TF U10.

If you have questions or would care to discuss trading strategy, feel free to contact me via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965 - Rob.

Happy Trading and Have a Great Weekend!

Today's Trading Levels

Thursday’s Trading Levels

Good morning

This morning the Government release this week's Jobless Claims. Initial Claims fell 7000 to 457K vs 460K expected. Continuing Claims were 4.56 million vs 4.50 million expected. This isn't really having an effect on markets.

Equity index futures are up this morning thanks to better than expected earnings and a tame jobs report. However, as I mentioned Tuesday, I think we've started a mild pullback following this recent run. I'll take my queue from the markets but I feel there is a more of a tendency to sell and book profits now than there is of a renewed push higher.

As I write this TF U10 and ES U10 are trading 655.90 and 1110.75 respectively. TF U10 is already trading under R1 659.80 - bearish - while ES U10 is trading above its R1 of 1109.58. I'll be looking to short ES U10 at 1109.50 on a Sell Stop.

If you care to discuss a strategy to trade the numbers below or strategy for any other markets, feel free to contact me directly via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965 - Rob

Today's Trading Levels

Tuesday’s Trading Levels

Good Morning Traders

If you take a look at the Weekly Pivots that I posted yesterday, you'll notice that equity index futures are all trading above their respective Pivots and above their Second Resistance (R2). We know two things from this - 1. week to week, equities are in an uptrend; 2. week to week, equity index futures are extended/overbought. When this happens, the Daily Trading Levels are most important until these markets fall back into the weekly range.

That being said, I'll be looking for a modest sell off at some point this week. From what I'm looking at, that could be today. DD reported better than expected earnings and gave a positive forecast this morning. This is providing a bid to equities however many SP and Dow components are all trading at significant resistance.

As I write this, TF U10 and ES U10 are trading 669.00 and 1117.00 respectively. You'll notice that these levels are slightly above R1 listed below. If my assumption of a pullback is correct, these two markets should lead the fall once they trade below their respective R1 levels - TF U10 668.58 and 1114.92.

If you have questions or would like to discuss the trading levels that I provide, please feel free to contact me via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965 - Rob.

Happy Trading!

Trading Levels for the Day and Week Starting July 26th

Good Morning All

Welcome back to another week of trading with Pivot for Profits.

Equity markets will have little to key on this morning following a tremendous rally last week. However New Homes Sales Data is due out at 9:00 CST.

This report could be a catalyst for a substantial move. Problem is I don't know which way so it's best to react to the number than to try and guess the market's reaction. We all know the housing markets stinks. This week's Barron's discusses how renting will be the better option than buying over the next 5 years.However given last week's strength in equities, I don't expect a significant downside move if the housing report is bad. If anything it'll give an excuse to buy on a dip.

Equity futures, in particular ES U10 and TF U10, are trading slightly lower as I wrote this - ES U10 1098.00 and TF U10 649.20.  As I have mentioned in the past, stocks are cheap, very cheap. That being said, last week's impressive move didn't surprise me in its magnitude as much as in its timing. But what's the old say, "never sell a sleeping market".

QM U10 and QG U10 are both trading lower this morning. I'm looking for a move higher in Crude Oil. This market breaks out above $80.00. Although global demand seems to be tame, there are a lot of geo-political tension in the Middle East, Korea, Japan and China. According to one source I subscribe to, the sanctions against Iran which were signed by President Obama on July 4th is cause for concern because it could ignite into a regional war and potential something more.

A key to all of this well be what the Dollar Index does this week. As I mentioned last week, DX U10 has support at $82.00. We're trading $82.47 as I write this. Rallies in this market can have a negative effect on stock and energy futures.

Below you'll find my trading levels for today and for the entire week. If you have questions or comments regarding anything I write about, I ask that you contact me directly via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965 - Rob.

Happy Trading!

Trading Levels for the Week Starting July 19th

Good Morning Traders

Please excuse my absence but I was struck with a medical condition that makes it painful for to sit, stand or lie on my back. Although still recovering, I should be back full time this week. Nothing seems worse than being laid up in the middle of Summer in Chicago.

This will be a telling week following Friday's stock market collapse that saw indexes drop anywhere from 2.8% to 3.5%. Of the indexes I follow the one that suffered the most and that has been a laggard is the Russell 2000 Index. As I mentioned before, this is a leading index. When is lags like it is, there is cause for concern.

According to last week's Weekly Trading levels, all but the R2K Group closed above their respective Weekly Pivot. Does this mean that the end of the stock market is upon us? No. But I do feel that we were at the top of a trading range on Thursday and Friday's Options Expiration was a good time to confirm it.

That being said, I don't like the way things are setting up. I WILL CAUTION YOU NOW, if TF U10 doesn't hold the 600 level, it will test the 584 lows and more than likely follow the downtrend channel to bottom near 575.00. This will bring down all other stock indexes.

DX u10 will have a strong say in how this plays out. The Dollar Index has support at approximately $82.00. If this support holds and DX U10 start rising, it will take down Crude and Nat Gas as well as other commodities.

If you have questions or comments regarding my blog, I ask that you contact me directly via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965.

Happy Trading! - Rob

Friday’s Trading Levels

Good Morning

Below you'll find my trading levels for today. I'm including my Weekly Levels to illustrate the following comments. If you have questions or suggestions, feel free to contact me directly via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965.

Trading Levels

So far so good. As the Talking Heads encourage you to think this week's move in equities is a bottom, I must add caution. When you look at the Weekly Levels below, you'll notice that all index futures but TF U10, the Russell 2000 index which represents growth, are trading well above their respective Weekly Pivots.

I view the Russell 2K as a sign of a healthy market and use this index as a leading indicator. For it to be barely at/above its Weekly Pivot of 615.87 after the week the other indexes have been having is surprising as it is concerning to me. This is just one more sign that there is no growth in corporate America.

I don't expect much out of equities today however, I will be looking for TF U10 to pullback to today's S1 of 611.93. The Dollar (DX U10) is up and explains the modest morning decline. However I think equities can end the week on a high note. If TF U10 pulls back to the 609/610 range, I'd suggest placing a Buy Stop at 612.00. If filled look for this market to trade back to this morning's highs and possibly higher depending on conditions.

Feel free to contact me with questions. - Rob 866.312.4965

Trading Levels

Thursday’s Trading Levels

Good morning Traders

Isn't this summer heat great?! I'm sure they think so on the east coast.

Yesterday I noted some signs that there could be a "modest intraday rally in equities". Well it wasn't so modest and when the buy programs kicked in after 2 pm CST, the Bears were running for the exits as the short squeeze was on.

So was there any substance to yesterday's rally or was it nothing more than a Short Squeeze? I think it was a little of both. When you look at the Risk Free Rate, Treasuries, you'll realize the return is horrible making yields on corporate bonds and equities much more attractive.

However, yesterday I also mentioned that the lower trending Dollar was helping support equities. It still is and yesterday's intraday fall near 12:30 CST was prime example of the inverse relationship the Dollar has with the stock market. As I write this DX U10 is trading flat at $84.015. My view is that this market can fall to the $82.00 level before finding support. That's short term bullish equities and commodities.

Trading Levels

Below you'll find today's trading levels. Due to yesterday's big range, today's numbers will be difficult to use. But I can tell you that yesterday's closing prices settled above their respectively Weekly Pivots and more importantly above their Weekly R1. I expect this rally to continue ahead of next week's start to earnings season.

If you have any questions or comments regarding this blog, please feel free to contract me via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965.

Happy Trading - Rob

Commentary and Trading Levels

Good morning

I hope you all enjoyed the Fourth of July weekend. Mine was great!

Yesterday, index futures had a strong opening but fizzled towards the end. For those of you who are in contact with me, I sent you and discuss strategy for my weekly trading levels. Those who aren't in touch with me, can see the levels today.

To recap, I suggested a Sell of ES U10 at 1035.75 using the Weekly Pivot of 1035.98 and yesterday's Daily Pivot of 1036.00. ES U10 closed at 1024.00. If you traded the suggestion and held to the close, you picked up 11.75 handles or $587.50 per contract.

Today, index futures are trading slightly lower to flat. Some of this has to do with European restrictions on the banking employees. But really most the moves have to do with fluctuations in the Dollar (DX U10). If you can't figure out why stocks are going up or down, check the Dollar.Currently +0.084 at $84.39.

That being said, there is a modest rally in Crude Oil and a modest drop in Gold. I've had egg on my face for this before but with the Dollar trending lower, I'm inclined to look for a modest intrady rally today. We're still in a bear/correcting market however yesterday's close on all index futures ended higher than Friday's close.

Trading Levels

As I write this ES U10 has rallied to 1025.75. Today's Pivot listed below is 1025.33. If we don't rally much more, say to 1029/1030, I think you can Sell today's Pivot or 1025.25. The Russell 2K, TF U10, is lagging behind. This is bearish. Taking my lead from this index, the morning rally in ES U10 should fade and to trigger the sell I detailed above.

If you have questions or comments, feel free to contact me directly via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965.

Take care and good luck - Rob

Trading Levels for the Week of June 28th

Good morning Traders

Equity index futures closed well below last week's Weekly Trading Levels. This is bearish sign for stocks coming into this week , putting pressure on the current reversal in downtrend that I had noted earlier.

In terms of my numbers listed below, it looks like TF U10 and ES u10 will be opening at or slightly above today's Pivots of 638.77 and 1072.33,  respectively. However they'll be opening well below their Weekly Levels of 645.49 and 1089.07.

It really is tough to say what's going to happen in equities over the next week. On the one hand you have quarterly Index ETF options that expire on the 30th, which has prolonged the Quadruple Witching up/down experience. On the next, we typically have a bullish trend trade that should begin today heading into the 4th of July holiday weekend. Also, with earnings season to start next week, I do expect money managers to do selective shopping ahead of it. So in a nutshell, I'm cautiously bullish. TF U10 has been fairly strong as of late so I think equities should find traction but protect your downside risk with options (insurance).

If you have question or comments regarding my blog, feel free to contact me directly at 866.312.4965 or via email at ruria@manducatrading.com.

Trading Levels

Tuesday’s Trading Levels and Monday’s Trade Idea Recap

Monday morning I provided you with trading levels that I don't always publish, the 3rd levels of resistance for ES U10 and TF U10. Those levels were 1124.50 and 679.00 respectively. I suggested that these areas would be good areas to sell because equity markets had opened much higher than Friday's close on news from China.  ES U10 and TF U10 closed at 1110.50 and 658.10 so I'd say those levels worked out for those of you who sold them.

If you have questions about my numbers or commentary, I ask that you contact me, Rob Uria, directly via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965 to discuss a trading strategy.

I'll be back later with trading ideas for Tuesday. Below you'll find Tuesday's trading levels.

Trading Levels