February 24th, 2010 Posted in Uncategorized

Good Morning Traders

It looks like another beautiful cold and sun-less day in Chicago. Fresh snow on the ground and more on its way ... Joy!

Out this morning ...

MBA Purchase Apps fell 7.3% while refi's fell 8.9%, another weekly decline. Due out later this morning, New Home Sales at 10 EST. This report will be released just as Fed Chair Bernanke discusses the economy and perhaps reveals the Fed's plan to pull some money off the table. Crude oil inventories out at 10:30EST.

Equities

So what follows the Tuesday Tank? Usually we'll have a follow through day on Wednesday, early weakness then late day upside reversal Thursday, ending with a flat to higher Friday. Does this always happen? No but time will tell if this happens this time.

As I write this equity index futures are trading flat to positive. TF H10 and ES H10 are trading 625.60, -0.20 and 1096.75, -0.50. They have been weakening all morning leading to the open. The key here is DX H10 which is currently at $80.85, unchanged. They're striking and rioting in Greece as a negative response to their government's attempts to fix their economy. If this situation escalates, and I'm sure it will, the Euro may get hit pushing the Dollar higher. This will put pressure on already sensitive equities.

Energies

Crude inventories are due out at 10:30 EST. QM J10 looks like it broke its recent uptrend. Like the stock markets, I think this was also a weak rally. Here's the idea ... if the global economy is as messed up as I think it is, crude oil demand will be much lower than previously anticipate. Longer term views become even worse the longer we stay in this quagmire. I think this is why Warren Buffett's Berkshire significant lowered his position in top oil producing companies.

Nat Gas inventories come out tomorrow at 10:30 EST. Lately supply has been decreasing yet, this market (QG J10) has been getting killed. I'm getting a preliminary reversal signal here. I'll tell you when it confirms.

Trading Levels

Look for ES H10 and TF H10 to trade to and slightly above their respective Pivots below. If this happens and the move over the Pivot is minimal, look to short the Pivot on the way back down.

If you have questions or comments about my information, please feel free to contact me via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965.

Happy Trading! - Rob

Daily Pivots	2/24/10
EQUITIES	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
ES H10	1115.50	1106.25	1098.25	1089.00	1081.00
YM H10	10459.33	10379.67	10315.33	10235.67	10171.33
NQ H10	1833.50	1817.25	1801.25	1785.00	1769.00
TF H10	635.87	630.93	626.47	621.53	617.07
ENERGIES	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
QM J10	80.10	79.48	78.85	78.23	77.60
QG J10	4.93	4.87	4.84	4.78	4.74