Monday Commentary and Trading Levels

March 8th, 2010 Posted in Uncategorized

Good Morning Traders

Last week Monday, equity index futures opened at or above their respective R1's. It held those levels and had a modest rally to set the tone for the week ahead of last Friday's Unemployment report.

Monday's trading action was the "follow through" day equities were looking for, following Friday's rally, that confirmed the uptrend. Volume increased throughout the week however easing Thursday as we waited for the report. Unemployment was much better than expected. Job losses amounted to 36,000 vs the 68,000 anaylsts' were expecting. The feeling that employment is stabilizing let the horses out of the gates and stocks were running. We ended the well above last week's Weekly Numbers.

Summary

We are in a confirmed uptrend. However, we are well overbought on many technical indicators. We could continue higher however due to the extreme overbought signals I'm getting, buy with caution. Use stops and consider protective puts if you hold overnight.

Equities

As I write this, equity index futures are trading modestly higher. A look at my Weekly numbers below, you'll notice that index futures are trading well above their respective R2. I see a little but more upside of each this morning - ES H10 could trade to 1041/42 and TF H10 could trade to 669/670 before finding resistance. This could be a good area to short.

Energies

QM J10 seems to be running along with equities. I imagine the opinion is that as the global economy improves, demand for crude oil will grow accordingly. Rising oil prices, and in turn rising gas prices at the pump, will certainly retard any economic recovery in the US. Those of you that believe gold is the best long term investment due to hyper inflation fears, you should know that oil prices act as a counter measure to inflation. Rising oil prices is an indirect tax that will curtail spending. We've already seen this happen in 2008. Keep this in mind next time someone tells you gold is going to $3000.00 an ounce.

QG J10 is still getting hit. This market is in a downtrend with very little signs of reversing. It is very much oversold but the reversal trade is not apparent.

Trading Levels - Monday's and Weekly

If you have questions or comments regarding any of my information, please contact me directly via email at ruria@manducatrading.com or toll free at 866.312.4965.

Happy Trading - Rob

Daily Pivots	3/8/10
EQUITIES	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
ES H10	1146.42	1141.33	1133.67	1128.58	1120.92
YM H10	10617.67	10581.33	10524.67	10488.33	10431.67
NQ H10	1901.83	1893.17	1880.83	1872.17	1859.83
TF H10	673.73	669.07	661.43	656.77	649.13
ENERGIES	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
QM J10	82.59	82.06	81.54	81.01	80.49
QG J10	4.67	4.63	4.60	4.56	4.53
Weekly Pivots
Starting	3/8/10
S & P 500	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
ES H10	1130.22	1126.03	1120.92	1116.73	1111.62
SPX	1131.15	1127.02	1121.54	1117.41	1111.92
SPY	113.47	113.06	112.56	112.16	111.66
OEX	517.11	515.35	513.09	511.33	509.07
DOW JONES	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
YM H10	10502.20	10466.00	10425.60	10389.40	10349.00
DJIA	10521.33	10482.35	10433.98	10395.00	10346.63
DIA	105.19	104.83	104.43	104.08	103.68
NASDAQ 100	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
NQ H10	1874.57	1866.43	1856.32	1848.18	1838.07
NDX	1874.60	1867.05	1856.91	1849.36	1839.22
QQQQ	46.16	45.95	45.70	45.50	45.24
RUSSELL 2K	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
TF H10	658.10	654.50	649.42	645.82	640.74
RUT	658.04	654.89	649.92	646.77	641.80
IWM	65.91	65.56	65.06	64.71	64.21
CRUDE OIL	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
QM J10	81.96	81.07	80.26	79.37	78.56
USO	39.85	39.48	39.11	38.74	38.37
NAT GAS	R2	R1	PIVOT	S1	S2
QG J10	4.82	4.74	4.68	4.60	4.54
UNG	8.74	8.61	8.52	8.39	8.29