Equity futures rebounded this morning following a better than expected Jobless Claim, where claims came in at 367,000. This is nice but the big Employment report is tomorrow morning at 7:30 am, cst.

As I write this, ES H2 is bumping up against weekly R1 of 1321.10. If this level if pierced at the 8:30 cst open, I don't think it will push much higher that 1325.00. If that's the case, I'll be looking to:

Sell ES H2 at 1319.75 STOP

Crude (March) is trading weak following what I'd call, a headline run-up. It is now trading below Weekly S1 of 98.537. However, we're getting into over sold territory on short term. That said, I'll be looking to:

Buy QM H2 at 97.00 STOP

If you have questions or comments, please contact me directly at 312.224.7882 - Rob

Last update, I mentioned that ES H2 and TF H2 hit my mean targets last week following my 12/17/11 suggestion to get long these markets. As a result, I started the week suggesting that you sell rallies in these markets. Over the last two days, there have been plenty of opportunities to sell rallies and profit.

I can't say that the rally stocks have been is over. I'll need to see where we finish the week. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see this healthy pullback continue so that ES H2 settles near 1350/1295 by week's end. For TF H2, I'd like to see 785/780.

That said, Pivot for Profits has one motto and that's "trade the big picture, one day at a time!"

As I write this, TF H2 and ES H2 are trading higher but off morning highs hit after this morning's ADP Jobs report that said American companies created 170,000.

The trend in equity futures is still bullish so what I'll be looking for:

For TF H2 to fall below today's R1 and this week's R1 of 796.2 and 795.2, respectively. If this happens without much follow through, I'll be looking to buy at 795.7 on a stop order. ** If it doesn't fall and starts higher at the open, I'll be looking to sell this market at 794.7 on a stop order.**

For ES H2, the latter scenario that I painted for TF H2 is happening now. This increases the probability that the latter scenario will trigger to go short than we will to go long. That said, ES H2 is trading 1318.00. It could rally as high as 1321.00. If it doesn't, look to sell this market at 1316.00 on a stop.

If you have questions, please contact me before risking real money - 312.224.7882 - Rob

Below you'll find today's trading levels as well as those that I generate for longer term, week to week, position trading.

The Euro (my symbol - 6E H2) is trading much lower,1.3087, following Chancellor Merkel's decision not to address the Greece Debt issue. This is taking US equity futures lower. The flip-side to this is that the Dollar is trading higher against most major currencies. This inverse relationship has been in tact for a while now and a simple way to gauge market direction on the short term.

Trading Levels

ES H2 and TF H2 are still trading bullish, although this trend is starting to get tested. Last week's high on ES H2 was 1329.75 which is 0.25 away from my mean target of 1330.00 for this market, state on 12/17/11. TF H2 target of 800.0 was missed by 0.3 last week Thursday when it trade to an early morning high of 798.7. These highs were hit following Bernanke's comments following Wednesday's FOMC. To summarize, he killed the momentum that equity futures markets had made by stating that interest rates will remain near zero until 2014 b/c the economy does not look good.

That said, and the fact that we've reached my near term levels for ES H2 and TF H2, I believe it's time to sell rallies.

For today, I'll be looking to sell ES H2 at today's S1 of 1306.50/1307.50 level. For TF H2, currently trading 791.0, I'll be looking to sell on the way down at 789.2/787.2 on a Stop.

If you have questions about the above trade, call me to discuss - 312.224.7882 - Rob

Jobless Claims rose 21,000 to 377,000, greater than expect (370K). This isn't a big deal given the seasonal volatility. However, Durable Goods came in greater than expected at 3%.

But the big story came out of the Fed yesterday. Their view is that the economy or something isn't as it should be. At least that's all I can think of when Bernanke stated that they would keep interest rates at virtually 0% for the next 3 years. That began a sell off in the Dollar and a rally just about everywhere else. Can you say Stealth Quant Easing?!

The Fed either has a disappoint view of the economy or the Fed is trying to keep rates at zero so when can pay off our debt at near zero. Otherwise, as I've mentioned here in the past, welcome to America's version of Japan's lost decade.

I remember asking my boss, a former trader at the CBOE, if the US could become Japan in 1997. I forget the catalyst, maybe Long Term Capital's collapse, but he had no idea of what I was talking about at the time. 15 years later, I'm seeing exactly what I thought I'd be seeing.Unfortunately, 15 years ago, I didn't have the market awareness that I have now.

Trading Levels

As I write this, ES H2 is trading at 1325.00 and TF H2 is trading 798.0. We are now in the middle of my targets (ES H2 - 1320/1340; TF H2 780/800) for these two markets that I began writing about on 12/17/11. I don't know how long we'll stay up at these levels or if we'll move higher, however, the upside rewards are diminishing for the risk that one would take if buying up here. That said, the bullish trend for equity futures is in tact.

For those paying attention, is it me or is this quarter starting out exactly like the first quarter of 2009?

For ES H2, I think it'll make a move to and above today's R1 of 1329.00. TF H2 is trading 20 cents away from its R1 of 798.1, as I write. Until I see what happens at that level, It'll be hard to make a recommendation, however, if history repeats itself, traders/investors confidence will reflect Bernanke's statements in today's trade.

If you have questions about what that all means, call me - 312.224.7882

Have a great Friday's Eve - Rob

Below you'll find today's and this week's trading levels. Expect Monday's trade to be light. There isn't much going on but issues in Greece and much of Europe are still present.

In regards to equity index futures, specifically ES H2 and TF H2, they're off from overnight highs. For ES H2, it's coming off a high of 1314.00, which is just above our Weekly R2. TF H2 hit a high of 784.9, just over our Weekly R1 of 784.6.

As you know, my low end target for ES H2 is 1320.00 and 790 for TF H2. We're pretty close. ES H2 is trading 1310.75 while TF H2 is trading 781.9. I expect to see a bit more of this early weakness, possibly bring ES H2 under 1308.00.

If that happens, I'll be looking to buy at 1308.50 on a Stop. If you have questions or care to discuss this trade, please call me - 312.224.7882.

Have a great day - Rob

ES H2 and other equity index futures are trading higher this morning follow better than expect earnings reports from BAC, JPM, EBAY and others.

Weekly Jobless Claims were reported as well and unexpectedly fell by 50K to 352K. This report gave equity futures a pause but as I write this we're still trading near overnight/morning highs of 1309.00.

If you recall, I feel the ES H2 has been on a push to 1320/1340 range since 12/27/11. As of this morning, we're 11 handles off my lower end target. What this means is that the risk of going long ES H2 is getting higher.

Using ES H2 as a proxy for the other equity index futures, I'd like to see equity futures trade higher in the opening half hour. For ES H2, I'd like to see it trade above today's R1 of 1309.00 but stay under today's R2 of 1315.50. If this happens:

I'd be looking to place an order to SELL ES H2 at 1308.75 STOP

Other Markets:

SELL QM H2 at 101.50 STOP

I'll see how grains open at 9:30 CST. This market is also in need of a pullback just to keep this relief rally honest.

If you have questions, feel free to call me directly - 312.224.7882

Insider Trading - trading while in possession of 'material, non public' information. This practice is illegal ... for some.

I'll be brief this morning because I'm a little upset. Pissed off is probably more accurate. The reason, four more individuals have been or will be arrested for insider trading. Since 2009, the Manhattan US Attorney Preet Bharara has charged 56 people with insider trading. Of those 56, 50 have plead guilty.

While I'm not crying for these greedy piece of God's work, I think it's a crock of dung that these individuals are being arrested for breaking laws that lawmakers create yet are NOT accountable to. In other words, if you are a member of Congress, IT IS OK TO TRADE ON MATERIAL and NON PUBLIC INFORMATION. If you're a tax paying American, it is ILLEGAL. So what gives!?

If you're not a millionaire before entering Congress, guess what? You'll be one when you get out. Regardless of how long you're there. Imagine having at least 2 years where you can get virtually free loans to buy and sell on insider information. Is it any wonder that these asses raise millions of dollars by lying to the masses for a job that pays $174,000 a year?

You may have seen this reported on 60 Minutes last year. If you haven't, you can find it easily on the web. Below you'll find the link to Steve Croft's interview.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57323527/congress-trading-stock-on-inside-information/

In response to the 60 Minutes piece, someone, no one is just ready to take credit for it yet, has introduced a bill called the Stock Act to curb if not end this practice of Congress men and women, Democrat and Republican, from trading on material, non public information.

Since no one has made this a paramount issue, most media outlets and political activists haven't really picked up on it or just don't care. This isn't surprising considering how stupid the Media, television producers and politicians really think the American public is. They're betting that we'll forget in a few months, definitely by election time. But odds are you already have forgotten, assuming you were ever aware of it in the first place.

The question now asks, "what are you prepared to do about?" ... Complain! Find your local or state politician and get in their face. Ask them, why politicians have a separate set of rules than those who elect them into office?Force them to level the playing field. (But be warned, it's sometime illegal to passionately question a politician. In some states and cities, this is considered felonious assault, even when just verbal.)  Yes, really.

While I don't sympathize for the insider trading criminals already in custody, I do think they are victims of a witch hunt created by the very individuals who should be in jail for committing the same crime.

... And justice for All (yeah right)

Trading Levels

Welcome back. Hope you enjoyed the long weekend.

We'll be looking for a higher opening this morning for equity and energy futures although they are off their overnight highs. Much of the push is coming from better than expected bond auctions out of Europe despite ratings downgrades that occurred after Friday's close. The key here is the Euro Currency. If you look at a chart, it's almost identical to that of ES H2.

The equity index futures rally that I've been outlining since December 17th is still in tact and moving begrudgingly higher. But that's how these "stealth rallies' happen. A Wall of Worry if you will.

You'll find today's trading levels below. In addition, I've included the trading levels that I generate for longer term trading that calculate levels on a week to week basis.

For ES H2, you'll notice that today's Daily Pivot and Weekly Pivot are almost identical at 1284.00. That said, 1284 will be a critical level if this market is to go higher.

Trade Idea

I'll be looking for ES H2 to fall further from where it's trading now, 1296.50. I'd like to see it fall below 1295.25 to set up a buy at today's S1 or BUY ES H2 at 1295.50 STOP, when and if, ES H2 falls below 1295 AND holds above 1290.00.

If you have questions about this trade or commentary, feel free to call me directly at 312.224.7882.

Have a great trading day - Rob

To start the year, financials have been one of the best performing sectors in equity markets. Today's report from JP Morgan will challenge that trend today as the investment bank's earnings release disappointed with a 23% drop in profits.

Really this isn't that big of a deal. Most realize and know that investment banks are suffering right now. All you have to do is look at the daily trading volume to know market participation is down. Question is - when or will it come bank?

Consumer Sentiment is due out later this morning at 8:55 CST.

Trading Levels

Equity index futures are off this morning following the JPM report but as I mentioned it's not that surprising and markets reflect that.

As I write this, ES H2 is trading at 1282.00 and dropping. I don't see this continuing too much further. My indicators are showing short term oversold conditions. Couple that with that the fact ES H2 is trading below today's S1 of 1284.42 and we have a trading opportunity!

Look to buy ES H2 on a buy stop above today's Support 1 of 1284.42 - i.e. BUY ES H2 at 1284.50 STOP.

Feel free to call me if you have questions - 312.224.7882 - Rob

Have a great weekend!

Last Thursday I wrote:

"... If you're not paying attention, equity index futures are on the verge of breaking out to the upside ... possibly taking ES H2 to 1320/1340 range. I mentioned this on my post dated 12/27/11. - Pivot for Profits Blog 1/5/12. "

Hopefully you were paying attention and were able to get in. I didn't hear from any of you so who knows. If you did, you didn't do it through me.

Below you'll find my trading levels. I encourage you to contact me to find out how useful my information can be to your trading success. Rob - 312.224.7882.

Good Luck!

Trading Levels

With this morning's broad based rally, I'll be using trading levels that I do not publish often if at all. If you're interested in these levels, call me.