Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

Equity index futures were down over night on more Euro fears. (I know it's getting old) But on the home front, Jobless Claims came in lower than expected at 372,000 vs 375,000 estimate. CNBC commentator Rick Santelli pointed out this morning that for the past few years, Jobless Claims ended the year at its best levels. Perhaps he's being a buzz-kill or he's merely realizing that seasonal hiring trends may explain why this number is peaking at the end of the year, the Holiday Season

Trading Levels

You'll notice that today's trading levels for ES H2 and TF H2 have tight ranges between today's Pivot and Support 1. You can extrapolate several means to this but simply, I look at it as not enough risk/reward to short these markets at current levels - ES H2 1269.00 and TF H2  740.0.

I'll be looking for ES H2 and TF H2 to trade below their respective Support 1 levels before taking a shot to go long. If you're not paying attention, equity index futures are on the verge of breaking out to the upside. If it happens, it will be a very very powerful move, possibly taking ES H2 to 1330/1340 range. I mentioned this on my post dated 12/27/11.

Trade Ideas for Today

ES H2 - If this market falls below today's S1 of 1266.08 and holds 1260.00, I'll be looking to buy this market on a stop. For example, one could place an order to  BUY ES H2 at 1266.25 STOP.

TF H2 - Same as above except one could place an order to BUY TF H2 at 741.7 STOP.

Please contact me BEFORE trading my ideas or levels below. If you don't know how to trade my levels or manage the associated risk, do not trade these unless you talk to me first.

Have a great day!

Rob 312.224.7882 / 866.312.4965

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

The question of the day will be - Was yesterday's opening year broad based rally for real or just a product of more Headline-news short covering? One thing is for sure, if US markets are trading off the Euro Currency (and they seem to be), troubling waters are still ahead.

Although equity index futures are still trading bullish on a week to week basis, they are still in overbought/extended range. I wouldn't be surprised to see a modest sell off given yesterday's market action.

The sell off I'm describing is occurring as I write this. ES H2 and TF H2 are trading under their respective daily S1. That said, I'll be looking for the following:

BUY ES H2 @ 1268.75 STOP

BUY TF H2 @ 745.5 STOP

For Crude Oil - SELL QM G2 @ 102.025 STOP

For Grains - SELL ZS H2 @ 1231.5 ; SELL ZC H2 @ 658.6 STOP ; SELL ZW H2 @ 660.3 STOP

For Metals - SELL YG G2 @ 1593.9 STOP

As always, if you have questions or comments, call me before trading these ideas and the levels below - 312.224.7882.

I'll be happy to discuss my ideas and yours at your convenience so please take me up on it - Rob

Happy 2012

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

Maybe I wasn't being so optimistic after all. A week ago, I mentioned that I the problems in Europe were bad but not as bad as the talking heads were making it. I felt that our economy was moving along better than most want to believe, especially those anit-Obamas. Don't get me wrong, I'm not here to pat the President on the back. We all have issues with politicians. But I will always believe the United States machine and its direction is bigger than just one man and as such can't be derailed by one man.

Those factors are at the forefront of today's early morning rally. Not only are there signs of the US economy picking up but there are signs that the world economy is still growing at a fair if not modest rate.

If you think I'm wrong and believe the United States is on it's way down, I'd like you to consider the US as an adolescent. During someone's teen years you never know if they're going to come out right or wrong, good or evil. But those ups and downs are usually appeased as a teen moves into its young adult and then adult life. The US economy and its role in the global economy is just at its teen years of influence. The US Empire is just beginning.

Trading Level

To see we're going to open higher seems like an understatement with SP futures trading plus 20 this morning. Better than expected, and largely positive, global manufacturing numbers have pushed equity futures higher and as well as just about all other commodities this morning.

As far as trade ideas, this morning's move is putting all but one equity index futures out of trading range as per my numbers. I don't publish my 3rd levels of support and resistance but for those of you who an aggressive risk tolerance, look to SELL TF H2 at 752.1 STOP. This is a very risky trade given this morning's bullish strength however "overbought" it may be in the short term.

Aside from that, I really don't see much this morning. Hopefully you're long or in cash. If you're in cash, I'll be back once I see a trade idea that might work.

Feel free to call me with questions, comments or to discuss your trading strategy - 312.224.7885. Toll Free 866.312.4995.

Have a great day and year!

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

It is clear that I was being too optimistic earlier this week when I thought equity futures had the "oomph" to push to year end highs. The volume is just too light. Equities have a chance to rally by mid-January when we get a look at corporate earnings but we're going to need a miracle to get some New Years cheer by tomorrow.

However, the key for equity futures, in particular TF H2 and ES H2, is what happens when those markets reach their respective Resistance 1 (R1). Yesterday, TF H2, the market I consider a leading indicator, broke its weekly R1 of 739.0 (bearish).

Today, I expect to see ES H2 trade down to its R1 of 1243.32. It came close yesterday afternoon but didn't break. Currently trading 1249.50 (today's Pivot). TF H2 is trading under its R1 and today's Pivot of 738.0 at 737.5. This is a lot of resistance for these two markets, albeit it in light trade.

I hate being a barer of bad tidings just before New Years but there's a good chance that we end an already bad year on an even more sour note.

If ES H2 trades under 1243.00, I expect the above scenario to play out. It's hard to think it will be bad given the light trade however anything is possible these days, especially if the Euro Currency continues to fall apart.

Personally I suggest you avoid trading past noon today, however if you need to trade, I offer the following ideas.

You can look to SELL ES H2 at the Pivot of 1243.50/1243.25. Use this morning's highs for BUY STOP. Otherwise, look to use a STOP order to SELL ES H2 at 1243.00 STOP.

Normally the latter trade would be the less risky trade but given the current market participation, "break out" trades are not following through making the aforementioned Stop Order risky.

If you have questions, feel free to call me 866.312.4965 (locally 312.224.7882). I'll return to update this next week in the new year.

Have a Prosperous and Very Happy New Year!

Rob

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

Trying to trade during the end of year holidays is mostly a fruitless effort. A trader need volatility and there just isn't enough that warrants the risk.

The really big move in these equity futures markets happened overnight. The catalyst seems to be an Italian bond auction that went better than expected. As I written before, Europe is in bad shape but don't believe the hype. The talking heads need something to embellish to maintain viewers and advertising dollars.

However if you have to trade here's few ideas:

Wait for the 4 equity index futures to trade over the daily Resistance1 (R1) listed in my numbers below. Then place a SELL STOP slightly below R1.

For example, ES H2 is trading 1262.50 as I write this. I would like to see this market and the other 3 equity futures markets that I follow, trade higher and above their respective R1's. For ES H2 that levels is 1264.08. What I need to see if this market trade as high as 1268/70 range and levels out. If it happens, place a SELL STOP on ES H2 at 1263.75.

If you have questions or care to discuss trades, please contact me directly at 312.224.7882. Sorry but my toll free line is having problems. Please contact me on my local line.

Have a great day! - Rob

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

I hope you enjoyed the long holiday weekend. The futures markets are trading it seems like most traders have been off since last Wednesday.

It safe to assume that the lack of participation will continue throughout the week as we finish 2011. However, many miss pretty good trading opportunities during the final week of the year simply because "it's too quiet".

Low volume markets, particularly ES H2 and TF H2, are hard to trade b/c when you see a high probability trading opportunity develop, there may not be enough astute traders around to make the trade profitable.This is where trading levels, like the ones that I generate and have posted below, come in real handy.

Trading Levels

It's still very early and I'm sure those who are trading today are barely awake. Equity index futures are trading lower however it's nothing major. As I mentioned it's very quiet.

That said, in terms of the bigger picture and my week to week analysis, ES H2 and TF H2 are trading short term bullish for the second week in a row. I don't know when it will happen but this week is just as good as any. I expect to see ES H2 trade as high as 1270 near term and if the uptrend continues, we may see 1320/1340 range before this is broken.

TF H2 is also trading short term bullish. Near term I expect this market to a trade as high as 740/760 range. A breakout above 760 will propel this market to 800/810 range before leveling out.

I understand these are optimistic claims however there's a lot of powder on the side lines to run the short and to take equities higher in a hurry. 4 to 5% moves are not uncommon these days. If we get a 4% move on ES H2 from the current level of 1257, this market is trading 1305+.

If you'd like to discuss my analysis or care to receive real time trading ideas based on my system and numbers below, I encourage you to call me - 866.312.4965.

Have a great trading day! - Rob

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

Today is my favorite day of the year. Winter Solstice, 2011 edition.

For those of you that don't remember:

The Earth, turning on its axis as it circles the sun, is tilted at an angle of 23.5 degrees relative to its orbit. Whatever the season, the axis points the same way, with Polaris, the North Star, hovering over the North Pole.

Tonight is the night that the axis, as seen from the north, points as directly away from the sun as it will all year. So Chicago, for instance, will get just 9.1 hours of daylight tomorrow, Atlanta and Los Angeles will get 9.9 hours (they're closer to the equator) and everything north of the Arctic Circle will experience 24 hours of darkness. - ABC News, Ned Potter 12/22/11.

I'm sure you're wondering why I'm talking about this but when markets are this slow and you live in Chicago, knowing that the days ahead are getting longer and brighter is a great way to start the day!

Today will be a quiet day as we head into Christmas weekend. It may be even quieter tomorrow. I expect trading ranges to be very tight barring significant news.

Below you'll find my trading levels. I see a few potential trades this morning but none really provide the risk/reward that I need to see before trading. This will probably be the case until next Tuesday. If you're on my mailing list, I'll email you trades when I see them. If you want to join the mailing list, please call me at the number below.

Please contact me first if you're going to use them to trade - 866.312.4965 - Rob

Happy Holidays!

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

In typical week-after-expiration fashion, Monday's trade was down and Tuesday's opening is up. For those of you who haven't noticed, this trading action is very common following options expirations.

If things hold true, this morning's strength in equity futures and commodity futures should fade throughout the day. This doesn't mean that we'll end the day lower. However, there should be an opportunity to fade this morning's rally.

That said, it's December 20th. Whether justified or not, there is very little chance that the powers that be will NOT try to squeeze shorts in thin trading over the next two weeks.

As I write this ES H2 is trading 1215.00 and TF H2 is trading 718.0. Both are trading higher this morning following better than expected housing report and Spanish bond auction. This is the second auction in a row that went better than expected. I mentioned yesterday, the comments out of the ratings agencies and analysts is overblown, and today's auction is another example of that.

Trading Levels

In regards to today's trade ideas and levels. ES H2 is trading 1215.00 which is above today's Resistance 1(R1) of 1213.00. This is setting up the type of short trade it like. For ES H2, I'll be placing a SELL STOP at 1212.75. Protective BUY STOP will be this morning's high or 1217.5 or 1218.75 which is slightly above the weekly Pivot or 1218.30.

For TF H2, we have a similar set up as above. For this market, I'll be placing a SELL STOP at 718.8 (just under today's R1). Protective BUY STOP will be this morning's high or 724.8 (weekly R1)  if you can handle that risk.

*** There is a chance the ES H2 and TF H2 will open higher than the levels I'm writing about now. If this happens, I'll be trying to make the same trades mentioned above but at higher levels according to my work. ***

As always, if you have questions or comments, please contact me. If you're going to trade any of the ideas mentioned on this blog, I strongly urge you to contact me before doing so - 866.312.4965 - Rob.

Daily and Weekly Trading Levels Starting 12/18/11

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

So following last week's futures and options expiration roller coaster the question is - Did last week's weakness signal a not so Merry Christmas and Happy New Year? Or a normal series of events related to expiration?

I'd argue the latter but we'll find out by Tuesday. Equity index futures will have to digest Moody's downgrade of Belgium adding "a comprehensive solution to the euro zone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach". Not good but maybe overblown.

Regarding my trading levels for equity futures ES H2 and TF H2, the critical points this week that will determine an up week or down will be 1207.25 and 708.1 respectively.

Below you'll find Monday's and this week's trading levels and pivots. Please contact me before trading them to determine proper entry and risk management criteria - 866.312.4965 - Rob.

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

Good morning

As I mentioned yesterday, the 11 markets that I follow and provide trading levels for looked unstable on a week to week basis. I thought, going into yesterday, that it was a coin flip as to where markets were going but my bias was that they were going south for Christmas. Yesterday's collapse following talk out of Europe that Germany wasn't completely on board with recovery plans was just the catalysts to push markets over the cliff so to speak.

Hopefully you took advantage of the 2 trades that I outlined which had you short ES H2 and TF H2 at 1237.25 and 736.2 respectively.

Scanning markets this morning, I don't see anything that will say the selling will stop, at least early this morning. Equities, crude oil, grains and metals all look weak and have room to fall before I see buying opportunities. The one exception is Nat Gas which could rally today.

Two things that could lend a bid to oil and equities are the tensions in Iran, which has them doing military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz where much of the world's oil travels through, and Fed Chair Bernanke alluding to the possibility more stimulus to combat the effects of the European crisis.

Remember it is only Wednesday morning and much can change by Friday, especially during a Quadruple Witching Expiration week.

Trading Levels

As I mentioned, I don't see any trades setting up for equity index futures this morning. I'll be looking to sell at higher levels and buying at lower. Call me to find out where.

Potential day trades are include - SELL QM F2 @ 98.6; BUY STOP QG F2 @ 3.25; SELL STOP ZS H2 @ 1120.3; SELL STOP ZC H2 @ 589.6 and SELL STOP ZW H2 @ 599.6

I strongly suggest you contact me before trading any of my ideas and trading levels. Together we can form a strategy to trade and to manage your risk - 866.312.4965 - Rob