Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

As I scan the markets this morning, I see the ES H2 and TF H2 are trading higher following yesterday's sell off. Contributing to the upside is that Spain had a debt offering that went much better than expected AND at lower costs to them. However yesterday's sell off may be a warning shot of things to come.

You could have blamed INTC earnings warning or the fact that England is playing hardball with the rest of the EU. But I suggest to you another theory, options expiration week and end of year profit taking. As I mentioned last week, you could expect a lot of volatility this week as a result.

What's disturbing is that as I look at markets on a week to week basis I see that there's a 50/50 chance that all markets take a dive in the coming weeks. Granted this could be a fake out given the amount of optimism amongst money managers and analysts. However it's hard to think that a year end rally is possible without broad based participation. Despite good domestic economic and corporate reports that show a recovering economy, investors are still afraid to allocate money to financial markets.

Now is that b/c everyone is broke? Or is it because investor confidence in the financial industry is gone? When I speak to prospective clients, investors say that "I have no money to invest" or that "I'm stuffing my money in my mattress" so maybe a little of both.

Trading Levels

Below you'll find today's trading levels. If you have questions or comments, please contact me. If you're going to trade my levels, please contact me first to determine entry levels and risk management - 866.312.4965.

Yesterday's sell off knocked ES H2 and TF H2 in to bearish territory according to my work. This morning we're getting a bounce back to support levels that were broken yesterday. When this happens, support become resistance. That said, ES H2 is trading 1236.50 just shy of the weekly S1 of 1237.50. The daily R1 is at 1238.50.

According to my system, I'll be looking for ES H2 to trade higher by 9:00 cst., ideally to the 1240 range. If this happens, I'll be placing a SELL STOP at 1237.25. If you want to be aggressive, you can place a SELL STOP at 1238.25.

For TF H2, we have a similar set up. The weekly Pivot is 736.7. Today's R1 is 733.7. We're traing 735.6. If the opening rally does not materialize in ES H2. It will because this market hasn't traded much higher from where we are now. So, for this market, place a SELL STOP at736.2 and then adding on at 733.2.

Again, if you have questions, call me - 866.312.4965 - Rob

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

It looks like the Euro fever is over. Equity futures are getting hit this morning following a week of optimism that frankly I couldn't figure out last week.

It's my contention that most of what we saw last week had everything to do with the  Quad Witching which occurs this Friday. Expect volatility this week as a result. If today is a sign of what's to come, this week will be full of opportunity to trade.

Below you'll find today's and this week's trading levels. If you have questions as to how to use them, please contact me - 866.312.4965 - Rob.

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

We remember the dead and injured of Pearl Harbor today. Thank you and God Bless.

It looks like a minor rollover is upon us in equities, which given the run up that started the Friday after Turkey Day. I don't know how bad it will be however we need to beware of European headlines. The Big Euro Summit is tomorrow so that could explain some of today's weakness.

Also, remember that next week is Quadruple Witching for December contracts. We can expect plenty of volatility. Great for day trading!

Trading Levels

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

Let me start off by saying Happy Birthday Vivian!

Now that that's out of the way, it looks like we'll have a fairly quiet day as investors around the world wait for more details and clarity about solutions for the EU financial crisis.

Standard & Poor's threatened to downgraded 15 euro member nations including France and Germany. Hopefully this is just a threat. I can't see how more expensive debt auctions are going to help any of the fragile EU nation.

As I write this, I don't see too much on the radar. ES Z1 and TF Z1 can go either way with a bullish bias. That doesn't mean traders won't see equities today. There is room to drop but at this point I don't have trades for these markets.

Equities do look a bit weak if anything, setting up for a day of profit taking. That said, buying opportunities should develop near today's S1 levels keeping in mind the short term trend is still bullish.

One trade I do see is in YG H2. Mar mini gold contract is trading below today's S1 of 1712.4 at 1710. I'll be looking for this market to sell off a bit more and then place a BUY STOP on YG H2 at 1713.0.

If you have questions or comments, feel free to contact me directly at 866.312.4965 - Rob

Holiday Cheer

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

Last I wrote, I stated:

Despite talk of breaking up the EU in its current form, breaking up the Euro into potentially two currencies and Italy and Spain still paying up at the auction window, ES Z1 and other equity futures markets are higher. The problems in Europe haven't changed and remain very much uncertain. Yet, a better than expected Consumer Confidence number all of a sudden brings back the focus to our growing, however slowly, economy? Go figure.

The same day Bloomberg.com has a headline articles asking, "Did Hank Paulson Tip Off Hedge Funds?", wondering if he informed hedge funds of his plans to address the financial collapse we had in 2008.

I didn't put 2 and 2 together as I was confused by the rally in equity futures given the same bad news out of Europe that had been killing equities. But that confusion was gone by the following morning when it was announced that central banks had coordinated to help out with Europe's financial problems; some one had tipped off The Street. Equity futures were off to the races and the those who loaded up in strong market moves just days prior benefited in a huge way. Did someone know in advance? Absolutely.

I'm not trying to tell you that markets are manipulated and that the average investor is at a disadvantage. Their not if they are aware of their environment. But I am telling you that there is some major insider trading going on that you'd be naive to think it doesn't happen every day. In many cases, like those of Congressional members, it's legal. So did Hank Paulson tip off? I don't know but if you watch Andrew Ross Sorkin's "Too Big to Fail", it's hard not to answer, yes.

Trading Levels

Taking a look at the bigger picture, the 4% Indicator triggered a buy signal Friday. This means that the Value Line Index moved 4%+ higher last week, triggering a short term trend trade to go long at this morning's open. You can buy TF Z1 at the 8:30 cst open according to the rules. The short term trend is bullish.

According to my work, I can confirm we're in a short term bullish trend on a week over week basis. That said, it doesn't mean that equity index futures can't come down following a very strong 5 day run.

This morning, ES Z1 is trading 1262ish and TF Z1 is near 747ish. It's safe to expect some profit taking early this morning but as I mentioned I expect equity futures to rally this week.

For ES Z1, I'll be looking to sell near 1266. For TF Z1, I'll be looking to sell near 750 for TF Z1. If that doesn't materialize, I'll be looking to buy at lower levels.

Also, keep in mind that December index futures will be rolling to March. I'll start publishing those levels later this week. Regarding the grids below, I am behind on my weekly updates for Corn and Wheat. I'll have those next week.

If you have questions or comments, please feel free to contact me directly at 312.224.7882 - Rob.

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

Excuse the delay in posting today but I'm having a hard time digesting today's equity futures markets.

Despite talk of breaking up the EU in its current form, breaking up the Euro into potentially two currencies and Italy and Spain still paying up at the auction window, ES Z1 and other equity futures markets are higher. The problems in Europe haven't changed and remain very much uncertain. Yet, a better than expected Consumer Confidence number all of a sudden brings back the focus to our growing, however slowly, economy? Go figure.

Trading Levels

Overnight equity futures spiked but have since faded dramatically. ES Z1 is trading 1198.00. TF Z2 is at 694.4, today's Pivot (see below). Despite the strength in equity futures the past two days, the week over week trend is still bearish for both ES Z1 and TF Z1.

I hoping to see ES Z1 and TF Z1 trade higher after posting this in hopes of catching a  sell off. Keep in mind that there's a monthly unemployment report that comes out Friday.

For ES Z1, I'll be looking to Sell at 1197.50 STOP. For TF Z1, Sell STOP at 694.0. Please contact me to determine exit strategies before trading anything I post - 866.312.4965 - Rob.

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

Welcome Back from the Holiday's

Most futures markets are higher this morning following record Black Friday sales and the EUs efforts to put together an outline for a bail-out. This is helping the Euro and in turn raising our markets.

A heavy dose of economic reports will greet traders this week finishing with November's Unemployment report. Hopefully there isn't a major revision to last month's number like there was with last week's GDP where the government revised the number from 2.5% to 2.0%.

Trading Levels

Below you'll find today's and this week's trading levels. The shortened week and light volume changed the dynamic of my weekly number slightly. But they should still serve us well.

If you have questions, feel free to contact me directly at 312.224.7882 - Rob

Focusing on ES Z1 and TF Z1, I see the potential for a few trades as I write this. Given this morning's pop, shorting these markets will be risky so proceed accordingly.

ES Z1 is currently trading 1187.75. This week's R2 1187.68. I'll be looking for this market to trade a bit higher by the 8:30 cst open. If it does, I'll be placing a SELL STOP at 1187.50.

TF Z1 is trading better yet has a similar set up. This week's R1 is 688.0. TF Z1 is trading 687.0 as I write this. I'll be looking for this market to trade higher by the 8:30 cst - hopefully 670.0 range. If it does, I'll be placing a SELL STOP at 687.7.

Again, if you have questions, feel free to contact me directly at 312.224.7882 - Rob

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

As I was afraid of, the exacerbation of the global economic slowdown was rampant. Pick a station, any financial station to see how quickly the "experts", with their crystal balls and other proven methods of prognostication,  jumped on the opportunity to tell us the end is near. First it was China, then Singapore, then ... Germany, the country that will save the European Union. Ironic isn't it. Just keep in mind, no one can predict the future.

However, the greater story was the failure of 10 useless politicians to come up with an American solution to an American problem. This so called Super Committee, half of which are apparently bound by some jagoff's - read Grover Norquist - politically iron clad pledge, couldn't come up with a solution on our debt. US employment opportunities must really be tough when politicians are willing to throw America and Americans under the bus to save their jobs. Oh yeah that happens during economic booms too.

Our political theater took center stage though, as the threat of another ratings downgrade loomed, while markets and asset values shrunk. The "experts" were sure of a downgrade, based on past comments from the same agencies who slapped triple A ratings on the crap currently burying Europe. However, needless to say, their speculation was wrong. Our ratings were reaffirmed after the markets closed. Whoop-tee-do!

Trading Levels

Following favorable tech earnings and the reaffirming of our debt rating by Moody's and SP, ES Z1 and TF Z1 are trading higher overnight. But the trend for these markets is bearish. This strength is good for those of us looking for short term selling opportunities. The question/risk - is whether or not money managers will do some early pre-Thanksgiving shopping?

For ES Z1, I'll be looking for this market to continue to rise to the 1199.00 range in the morning. It's already done it as I write this in thin overnight trading. If this happens in the morning, when more volume is present, I'll be looking to Sell at this level which is also today's R1. (see below)

For TF Z1, same as above however I'll be looking at the 707.5 range to Sell which is also today's R1. (see below)

I'll try to add more trade ideas as I see them in the morning. You'll find Tuesday's trading levels below.

If you have questions, please do not hesitate to contact me directly - 866.312.4965 - Rob

Not So Happy Start to the Holidays

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

It's Sunday evening and as I scan the news, it looks like Monday's start to a shortened holiday week is grim. A foiled bomb threat, a sorry excuse of a failed "Super Committee" and talks of an Asian economic slowdown are rattling financial markets as I write. But these are the times we live in so we'll see if this evening's weakness is still around in the morning.

The key to focus on this week, aside from the troubles in Europe, will be how traction this story of an Asian slowdown gets. Whether it's domestically or foreign, a global slowdown isn't good for anyone now.

As far as equity futures go, the S&P was down 4% last week. So was the Value Line Index. Those of you following along know that I track the week to week change in the Value Line Index in order to identify a trend trade known as the 4%Indicator. Last week, the Value Line Index fell 4%. According to the 4% Indicator trend trading strategy, a trader following this would sell TF Z1 at tomorrow's open.

As I mentioned last week, it was a good time to take profits.

I'll be back in the morning with some day trade ideas. Currently I'm hoping to see futures markets shake this evening's weakness in the morning so that I can initiate so shorts.

If you have questions or comments, feel free to contact me directly at 866.312.4965 - Rob

Monday's / This Week's Trading Levels

Futures and futures options trading involve substantial risk, and therefore are not suitable for all investors.

The concerns in Europe continue as France and Spain paid a lot more than expected in their overnight bond auction. The same risk, that Europe's problems will infect American banks, still exists and very ironic. Are we expected to pass this problem back and forth like a never ending cold?

Trading Levels

My work generated a sell signal on QM Z1 at 101.775 yesterday. This sell was a risky signal given yesterday's CNBC pump and dump. However, it's looking good this morning and I expect it to continue lower. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, QM Z1 was poised to make a move back to $100.00. The December contracted traded as high at 102+ yesterday. If you got long this market when I suggested, take profits now.

At this point I have no other signals. I will post them as I see them. I feel there's a good chance we see ES Z1 trade down to 1200 and to see TF Z1 trade down to 700. I hope to see these markets trade higher this morning. If so, I'll use my levels to sell these markets.

If you have questions, please call me directly - 866.312.4965 - Rob